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The Kangaroo Group aisbl
Rue Wiertz 11
B-1050 BRUSSELS


tel: 0032 2 280 60 95

fax: 0032 2 280 07 84

email: office@kangaroogroup.eu

internet: www.kangaroogroup.eu 

Next Events

... coming soon

Recent Publications

Euro “clearing”: Liability and Location 

Discussion paper from Kangaroo Group Member Graham Bishop

"The key interest rate contracts cleared in the UK are more than 50 times UK GDP, and 10 times the Eurozone’s GDP. Put starkly: €117 trillion of euro derivatives may have to be supported by liquidity based on the ECB’s €0.011 trillion capital and that of National Central Banks."

read whole artice below


Euro “clearing”: Liability and Location


16 January 2017

This issue of `clearing’ is likely to come to a head quickly once Article 50 Notice of `intention to leave’ is served by the UK - as a direct consequence of the G20 commitment to ensure there are no more taxpayer-funded bailouts of EU financial institutions. Post Brexit, Eurozone Member States are likely to be very concerned about capital market activities denominated in euro that – in a crisis – could create liabilities for their taxpayers. At that stage, UK-based financial firms will not be subject to EU law and therefore outside the ECB’s ability to enforce any necessary managerial change – unless the UK agrees to surrender control to EU institutions. 

However, it is very disturbing to an outsider that, eight years after the Lehman crash, there are still good grounds for concern in a systemic crisis– especially flowing from the “clearing” of euro:

ESMA 2016 stress test “A CM defaulting in one CCP would also be considered to be in default in all CCPs, in which it is a member, leading to more than 25 CM defaulting EU-wide…” 

The Commission’s December 2016 CCP Resolution Proposal “No Member State has yet developed a full national regime for CCP recovery and resolution which fully complies with the G20-endorsed FSB principles, including as regards the need for effective coordination and oversight against cross-border spill-overs.”

The magnitude of the risks are extraordinary: The key interest rate contracts cleared in the UK are more than 50 times UK GDP, and 10 times the Eurozone’s GDP. Put starkly: €117 trillion of euro derivatives may have to be supported by liquidity based on the ECB’s €0.011 trillion capital and that of National Central Banks. Any resultant credit losses would be a major political concern for Eurozone taxpayers, governments and Parliaments.

Does the EU27/ECB need to “do” anything further about Brexit? The ECB’s post-Brexit re-statement of its “oversight policy” provides a powerful analysis – implicitly - of the post-Brexit situation when it would have no powers to “induce change” in critical offshore financial market infrastructures. Once the Article 50 Notice has been served, all UK firms will be fully aware that their “EEA Authorisation” will expire at the moment of Brexit so they will need to make their own plans to continue their EU business.

The working assumption must be that the UK will not be a part of the European Economic Area (EEA) so any bespoke arrangement (normally taking the form of a Treaty) may require significant adjustment to many EU Directives and Regulations. The much-discussed “transitional arrangements” for UK firms might not be “in force” before 2023, given the necessary legislative processes. As risk-averse clients recognise the new risks, they may exercise their freedom to move their derivative positions to CCPs in a market where they can have a high degree of confidence that the ECB would supply liquidity in a crisis.

A major loss of derivatives business could worsen the UK’s balance of payments deficit by a third from its current record deficit - even at modest profitability levels for the derivative book. Parliament should require the BoE to analyse and publish the balance of payments implications in detail.

Original Text by Graham Bishop
Euro clearing 550 word article_FINAL.pdf
PDF-Dokument [108.8 KB]

Eurocorps as a pilot project for the European Defence Union

 

Discussion Paper on the basis of a meeting of the Kangaroo Group with General Ramirez

 

The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union makes it necessary to rethink the European Union from the beginning. We have to ask ourselves what the citizens really expect from the European Union. In the past seventy years the European Union has made a major contribution to the security and prosperity of the European nations.

read more ...

Future of the Eurocorps

 

At a meeting with members of the Eurocorps in Strasbourg Karl von Wogau, Secretary General of the Kangaroo Group and Honorary Member of the European Parliament, stated that the Eurocorps should be moved into the center of the Common Security and Defence Policy. It should become the Preferred Headquarter of the European Union. Moreover its five framework nations France, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg should take the decision to put the Eurocorps at the permanent disposal of the European Union.

read more ...

...

In the present discussion about Monetary and Political Union the opinion is often heard that a Political Union consists in total harmonization. But this is certainly not what we want to achive. The strength of Europe is its variety and the peaceful competition between its Member States. On the contrary the hard core of a Political Union is a common foreign and defence policy.  ...

 

read more ...

 

 

The Role of the Multinational Corps

 

The European Council in June has not been very encouraging for those who believe in the necessity of an autonomous Security and Defence Policy of the European Union. Public attention was taken by the problems of Greece and the drama of the refugees in the Mediterranean. The discussion about Security and Defence took only a very short time.

read more ...

Europe War and Peace

 

The author looks at general rules for peace preservation from Kant, Fukuyama, Einstein and Freud as well as Henry Kissinger and tries to draw conclusions for the present security situation of Europe. The presentation was in October 2015.

more ...

Monetary Union and Political Union

 

The author refers to Jean-Claude Juncker and Angela Merckel who have requested the creation of a European Army. He claims that the hard core of a Political Union is a common foreign and defence policy. He criticizes .......

... read more